The Future Face of Terrorism
By Marvin J. Cetron with Owen Davies

Summary: Two forecasters offer an insightful look at the terrorists of the future—who they will be, what they will be after, and the terrifying weapons they will use.

n the past, terrorists have been ruthless opportunists, using a bloody, but relatively narrow, range of weapons to further clear, political ends. The next 15 years may well be the age of superterrorism, when they gain access to weapons of mass destruction and show a new willingness to use them. Tomorrow’s most dangerous terrorists will be motivated not by political ideology, but by fierce ethnic and religious hatreds. Their goal will not be political control, but the utter destruction of their chosen enemies. Nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons are ideal for their purpose.

They will increasingly be joined by another variety of terrorist—criminals with the goal of maximizing profit, minimizing risk, and protecting their enterprises by intimidating or co-opting government officials. We have already seen their brand of terrorism in Colombia and holy war "criminal terrorism" has not yet been fully accepted as a legitimate target for the antiterrorist community. We use counterterrorist forces against "narcoterrorists," for example, but still believe we are diverting specialized resources to aid the "war on drugs." Before the 1990s are over, we will be forced to recognize that it is the method, not the motive, that makes a terrorist.

Alongside all of these developments, the traditional brand of terrorism—seeking political power through the violent intimidation of noncombatants—will continue to grow at the global rate of about 15% per year. Instability bred by the proliferation of the more violent religious and ethnic terrorist groups, coupled with an almost exponential growth in "mini-states" in the former Soviet Union and eastern Europe, could produce a two- to three-fold increase in international terrorist incidents by the turn of the century.

Technology in particular has made terrorism more attractive to dissident groups and rogue states. In the high-tech global village that the world is fast becoming, modern telecommunications provides near real-time coverage of terrorist attacks, whether in Beirut, Buenos Aires, Khartoum, or New York. As terrorism expert Brian Jenkins has noted, terrorism is theater and terrorists can now play to a global audience. As we move into the twenty-first century, new and even more powerful communications links will give terrorism still greater power and appeal.

Superterrorism
The most ominous trend in terrorism is also a matter to technology. With the end of the Cold War, weapons of mass destruction have slipped from their traditional controls. If nuclear, biological, or chemical weapons are not yet available to terrorist organizations and the states that support them, they soon will be. The proliferation of mass-destruction technologies and of groups that actively seek to inflict mass casualties has forever changed the face of terrorism. This confluence of means and will is a benchmark development that has qualitatively changed the nature of the terrorist challenge. According to members of both the Futurist and Terrorist Advisory Boards, assembled by Forecasting International, an improvised nuclear, biological, or chemical attack on the United States is increasingly probable — perhaps within the next five years.

Though North Korea’s weapons program represents a pressing concern, the former Soviet Union and its one-time satellite states present the greater risk. In North Korea, such weapons remain under the firm control of a strong central government, whose willingness to distribute them is a troubling possibility but is not yet clear. In many former communist states, control over many of these weapons has been so badly weakened that it may not matter what their central government intends.

Throughout the former East Bloc, scientists, technicians, and military personnel have families to feed, but suddenly lack jobs to pay their way. Many have firsthand knowledge of biological, chemical, and nuclear weapons. Therefore, many states and terrorist groups are hungry for their expertise and able to pay handsomely for it.

The weapons themselves may also be an immediate danger. While state strategic nuclear weapons remain too well guarded to be stolen or sold, tactical weapons lie scattered across what is left of the Soviet Union. Controls over these weapons are reportedly lax, and there is little hope that they will remain where Soviet troops left them. A single artillery round could provide enough material for a crude but effective nuclear device, particularly if it were designed for contamination rather than for use as a conventional nuclear weapon.

Chemical and biological weapons are even easier to acquire. Neurotoxins are closely related to many pesticides. Anyone capable of making common agricultural chemicals can make these poisons. As early as 1972, American authorities broke an ultra-right-wing terrorist organization and discovered a weapons cache that included 80 pounds of botulin toxin, a deadly food poison. Today, genetic engineering is sophisticated enough to produce even more virulent, custom-tailored pathogens. With such technology within the reach of many would-be terrorists, this is one form of proliferation that no one can even hope to prevent.

Easy access to biological, chemical, and nuclear technologies will bring many new players to the game of mass destruction, They may not even be limited to states and traditional terrorist groups. Organized crime, fanatical single-issue groups, and even individuals will all be able to acquire weapons once limited to regional and world powers.

Using chemical or nuclear-type weapons effectively would be easy, too. For example, if the World Trade Center bombers had packed their van with cobalt-60 or iodine-131 (both commonly available in medical and industrial laboratories), they might well have rendered New York's financial district uninhabitable for generations. Pulmonary anthrax kills 99% of the victims it infects, and only a few grams would be needed to kill virtually everyone in a major government office complex. If released in a subway tunnel, the convection currents created by the passing trains would carry the spores throughout the system, to be inhaled by thousands of commuters. Clinging to people's clothing, the anthrax spores would also be spread through offices, public buildings, and suburban homes. Thousands would die. It would be days before we even know we had been attacked, and it would be virtually impossible to assign blame.

Those weapons will be used, and not only because once possessed they represent an overwhelming temptation, but because — in the United States particularly — the public pays attention only to the spectacular. A year after the World Trade Center bombing, the blast was little more than a dim memory, to be revived only briefly when the perpetrators were brought to trial. Future terrorists will find that they need ever more spectacular horrors to overcome people's capacity to absorb and forget what previously would have seemed intolerable.

In the past, other concerns would have restrained terrorists from using weapons of mass destruction. Politically motivated terrorists require popular support to function. That support is seldom as committed or ruthless as the violent core of a terrorist movement, and the true extremists must temper their actions so as to avoid alienating the sympathies of those they hope to recruit, as well as those who provide money and logistical support. But for many of those now embarking on terrorist careers, those restraints do not apply.

Ethnoreligious Terrorism
Since the end of the Cold War, many forces have combined to unleash terrorist causes that either are new or had been buried under the crushing weight of the Soviet security apparatus. Where most old-line terrorist organizations served political causes, in the early twenty-first century they will be joined by a growing number of terrorist groups that are motivated by religious fervor or ethnic hatred. This is a dangerous development. With many traditional terrorist groups, we could assume that their targets and tactics would be constrained by the need to retain political sympathies. We appear to be entering an era in which few, if any, restraints will remain.

Religious and ethnically motivated terrorists are more willing than most to pursue their aims by whatever means necessary. Unlike politically motivated terrorists, religious fanatics do not shrink from mass murder because they are struggling against what they perceive as "the forces of darkness" or are striving to preserve such quasi-mystical concepts as "the purity of the race." Mass casualties are not to be shunned, because they demonstrate the cataclysmic nature of divine retribution. If innocents suffer, God will sort them out. The late Hussien Mussawi, leader of the Shiite Muslim group Hezbollah, once commented, "We are not fighting so that the enemy recognizes us and offers us something. We are fighting to wipe out the enemy." Radical Islam not only attacks moderate Arab regimes, but has spread beyond the Middle East. It now has significant followings in Muslim communities in Africa, Asia, Europe, and the Americas.

Ethnically motivated terrorists are driven by forces almost as powerful — a visceral, tribal fealty with a mystical and almost religious overlay. These terrorists are defending their family and community, the memory of their ancestors, their cultural heritage, and the identity of their people, any of whom have suffered and died simply because they were Armenians, Bosnians, Basques, Irish, Quiche, Ibo, or Kurds. They believe that their enemies seek the subjugation or annihilation of their people. It is the ethnoterrorist's sacred duty to prevent this evil, not only for the sake of the living and future generations, but out of reverence for the dead.

Given such powerful motives, ethnoreligious extremists are the terrorists most likely to kill indiscriminately and to embrace weapons of mass destruction. Thus, Hezbollah, the Basque ETA, and the Tamil Tigers rank among the world's most professional and deadly terrorist groups.

Many ethnic groups, liberated by the collapse of communism, are now free to act on their ancient hatreds. Their animosities threaten to engulf the patchwork of states and independent republics that have emerged from the ruins of the Soviet empire. Only now are we beginning to learn their names, histories, and agendas. Because such groups were of little interest to the traditional intelligence collector, Western security services know little about their ethnic allies or their depth of support, either on their home turf or in other countries.

Economic Terrorism
Terrorist operations that target a nation's economy can be extremely effective. Radical Egyptian Islamists attacking foreign terrorists have all but destroyed Egypt's lucrative tourist trade, dealing a serious blow to the nation's economy. The discovery of two cyanide-tainted grapes almost destroyed the export market for Chilean produce. Even Mother Nature can be enlisted in the terrorist cause. One potential weapon could be the Mediterranean fruit fly, a voracious agricultural pest that feeds on some 250 varieties of fruits, plants, and nuts. A malevolent Johnny Appleseed could single-handedly devastate the economies of whole regions. California produce, for example, earns the state $18.1 billion annually.

Recent reports of a sophisticated counterfeiting operation in Lebanon's Bekka Valley underscores how counterfeiting may be used as a more unconventional weapon. Using state-of-the-art equipment, American $100 bills are being churned out by terrorists. They are of such high quality that even experienced bank officials were fooled. If terrorists were to flood a country with high-quality counterfeit currency, economic confidence and faith in the government could take a nosedive, particularly if such an operation were combined with other forms of economic warfare and more-conventional forms of terrorism.

Other operations could target a nation's infrastructure. Our increasing dependence on the information superhighway could provide terrorists a new spectrum of targets. Several nations are believed to be developing computer viruses to disrupt military command and control systems, as well as other vital computer-dependent components of a nation's infrastructure. A massive disruption of East Coast telephone service in 1992, coupled with the airlines' dependence on it, forced flights scheduled to land in New York and other eastern cities to divert and major airports to close down. The failure was attributed to the system's dependence on telephone networks, which were handling an unusually high volume of holiday traffic. We must expect that rogue states and terrorist groups are exploring techniques to induce such failures by attacking the critical nodes of interdependent communications systems.

International banking systems would also be particularly lucrative targets for both terrorists and criminal elements. Doubtless, such groups are exploring ways to penetrate and alter account information, as well as to manipulate electronic fund transfers. Stock exchanges would similarly be at risk.

In the future, we may expect some industries and governments to engage in systematic campaigns to destroy their economic competitors, as well as to advance their political position. Spreading false rumors and engaging in forms of psychological warfare will become increasingly common, as will more-direct measures that could include product contamination, intimidation, and terrorist operations. State-sponsored operations, such as the bombing of Greenpeace's ship, Rainbow Warrior, by a French sabotage team, are less likely in the future. Governments inclined toward such activities are more likely to develop "arrangements" with organized crime, which will carry out operations for money or favors.

We can expect increased criminal terrorism and criminal alliances. Improbable opportunistic alliances of criminal gangs have achieved a global reach. Highly sophisticated Nigerian drug barons are linked to Jamaican posses that, in turn, use California-based gangs such as the Bloods and the Crips for distribution and enforcement purposes. The Italian and Russian mafias, as well as organized crime in the United States, are developing operational linkages and will probably diversify into new enterprises ranging from trafficking in weapons of mass destruction to manipulation of stock market and international banking systems. Criminal enterprises along the lines of the Bank of Commerce and Credit International (BCCI) will become increasingly common. The BCCI operation not only engaged in massive money laundering and defrauding of its shareholders, but also served as a financial conduit to some of the world's most-dangerous terrorist groups.

We can also expect a growing nexus between criminal multinational and established political parties, perhaps along similar lines as the relationship that has existed in Italy for the past 40 years and that recently brought down the ruling Christian Democratic Party and some of Italy's most-prominent political figures. A similar system of opportunistic alliances is emerging in the republics of the former Soviet Union, where local and ethnic mafias have gotten a lock on the emerging private sector by allying with elements in the security service and party apparatus.

Single-issue groups will also evolve in the years to come. For example, the militant wing of the antiabortion movement is likely to split. The larger and less dangerous faction will confine its activities to largely high-profile, but essentially legal, forms of protest. The other, driven by religious imperative, will turn to violence as traditional means of protest prove ineffective. Two assumptions guide this belief. One is that Roe v. Wade will not be overturned. The other is that the current administration in Washington will investigate and prosecute crimes of the violent fringe far more aggressively than its recent predecessors. In this, it will win support from the public, which appears increasingly alienated by the strong-arm tactics of militant antiabortion groups. These factors will drive antiabortion extremists underground, where isolation will further distort their view of reality. Frustration and rejection will almost surely spur them to new violence.

Environmental extremists and radical animal-rights advocates are less likely to escalate their violence than the radical antiabortionists. Rather, they will develop more-sophisticated ways to harass and sabotage their ideological enemies. Their goal will be the highest possible psychological impact — not destruction for its own sake.

Terrorism as a Strategic Weapon
Terrorism has seldom threatened the core interests of the United States. Yet, it has had more of an impact than most policy makers care to admit. Much of Europe and the Middle East believe that the 1983 bombing of the U.S. embassy and Marine barracks in Beirut drove the United States out of Lebanon — graphic testimony to the power of two truck bombs and the will of their suicidal drivers. (In truth, to the extent that they choose to think about it, many Americans are probably under the same impression.) The successful seizure of the U.S. embassy in Tehran and the 444-day ordeal of its staff dramatically raised the prestige of Islamic militants and the Khomeini revolution. It was also widely credited for the defeat of President Carter's bid for a second term — no mean feat for a clutch of student radicals.

Whether or not these beliefs are correct is beside the point. As in so many aspects of politics and war, perception is key. As long as terrorists believe they can strike at the United States and its interests effectively and with almost total impunity, they will continue to do so. Further, terrorist states will shape their foreign policy in the belief that the West's interests need not be taken into account.

For many years, the United States has promised "swift and effective" retribution for terrorist acts, but it has seldom delivered. In the eyes of terrorists around the world, the United States has become a "paper tiger."

And because most allies of the United States have been no more effective in combating terrorism, many terrorists find the price of hitting Western targets, including U.S. ones, eminently affordable. In the "new world disorder," terrorism remains a very attractive option for the weak and the desperate — and for governments who wish to maximize their leverage while concealing their hand.

In the Third World, particularly Africa, the Western democracies will increasingly be targeted for their perceived failure to stem their slide into chaos. The West will also be held responsible for many natural and political calamities. Already, the United States has been accused of creating the AIDS virus as a weapon to decimate blacks, a canard that has found acceptance abroad and even within the African-American community.

In general, state-sponsored terrorist incidents should continue their recent decline, largely because Western democracies are better able to identify the sponsors and to retaliate. But there is a downside. Those operations that are carried out will represent the core interests of the sponsoring state and thus may be pursued with more resources and greater zeal. As a consequence, they are more likely to be terrorist "spectaculars" on the scale of the bombing of Pan Am Flight 103 or the "Munich massacre" of Israeli Olympic athletes.

To conceal their sources of support, terrorist operations will use increasingly sophisticated tradecraft. Rogue states will also look to their nationals living in the immigrant ghettos of the United States and Western Europe to establish support networks and, on occasion, serve as cannon fodder. Because many are illegal immigrants, they leave no paper trail. This places security services at an additional disadvantage.

In some cases, it may remain uncertain whether a catastrophe was a terrorist operation or merely an unfortunate accident. This was the likely intent of the Libyans who bombed Pan Am Flight 103. Investigators believe the explosion was timed to occur over the ocean, where the recovery of wreckage for forensic analysis would have been difficult or impossible. In that case, the crash might well have been written off as a tragic accident.

One form of state-sponsored terrorism that will certainly continue is the assassination and intimidation of political dissidents living in exile abroad. Such operations will continue to increase because no world power has taken serious action to punish the offending states. Instead, host countries almost invariably have allowed murderous regimes to operate on their soil, as long as their own citizens are not targeted. As long as most governments seek to placate and accommodate the terrorists, it will remain open season on political refugees.

Defending Against Terrorism
Governments generally respond to increased terrorism by beefing up the security of government installations, key components of the nation's infrastructure, and other lucrative targets. This pressures the terrorists to seek softer targets that effectively coerce the government to meet their demands. Operations that generate large civilian casualties fit these parameters and are anywhere large numbers of people gather. Choice targets include sports arenas, shopping malls, houses of worship, and movie theaters. Targets such as the World Trade Center not only provide the requisite casualties but, because of their symbolic nature, provide more bang for the buck. In order to maximize their odds for success, terrorist groups will likely consider mounting multiple, simultaneous operations with the aim of overtaxing a government's ability to respond, as well as demonstrating their professionalism and reach.

Despite all this, terrorism will remain a back-burner issue for Western leaders as long as the violence strikes in distant lands and has little impact on their fortunes or those of their constituents. Until a country's citizens believe that terrorism poses a significant threat, traditional economic and political concerns will remain paramount. The industrialized nations will be too busy jockeying for access to markets and resources to be concerned with the less immediate problems.

In a world dominated by economic and political interests, most of the industrialized West will deal with terrorism one incident at a time, playing it by ear. Many developed states will seek accommodation with terrorists and their sponsors, as long as they can find a "fig leaf" to minimize potential embarrassment. France and Germany have done business this way for many years. Both to secure immunity and for commercial advantage, Paris and Bonn have tacit agreements with some of the world's most-lethal terrorist groups and their state supporters. France has reportedly formalized some of these arrangements in writing.

Terrorists in the early years of the twenty-first century will reflect the causes that excite passion and move people to violence. During this period of tumult and transition, terrorism and other forms of low-intensity conflict will increase until a new stasis or "world order" is established. Religious and ethnically motivated terrorists, who exhibit few constraints now, will have within their grasp the potential to create the Armageddon they seek.

It is this confluence of will and means that has forever changed the face of terrorism. As a consequence, we will face future dangers that would have seemed wildly improbable only a few years ago, and we must prepare to defend ourselves against them.

About the Authors
Marvin J. Cetron <mailto:marglo@tili.com>, Ph.D., is president of Forecasting International Ltd., which for four decades has been tracking the key forces changing our world.

Owen Davies is a former senior editor of Omni magazine and is a freelance writer specializing in science, technology, and the future.

Their most recent special report for the World Future Society, "50 Trends Now Changing the World" (2001, 28 pages), is available from the Futurist Bookstore for $8 ($7.20 for Society members), cat. no. R-2369.

(Reprinted from the November-December 1994 issue of THE FUTURIST.)
http://www.wfs.org/cetron94.htm